The case for and against trading each of the Orioles' top candidates | ANALYSIS

Few teams in baseball game are playing too as the Orioles lately. That's not what anyone would accept imagined entering the season or as recently every bit a couple weeks ago. As the calendar flipped to July, Baltimore was 35-43 and separated by six teams in the American League Wild Card standings. They were among the scattering about articulate-cutting deadline sellers in the sport. Six Baltimore players were placed amidst MLBTR's Top 50 merchandise candidates concluding Friday.

Fast forward merely a few days, and the O'southward accept washed everything in their ability to make the front function recollect twice virtually selling. They've rattled off successive sweeps of the Rangers and Angels and bear an eight-game win streak. Pair that with a dreadful past week and a half for teams like the Blue Jays and Guardians — who were at or near the top of the Wild Carte du jour heap — and Baltimore has closed a stunning amount of basis. They head into play Monday ii back of the final AL playoff spot, which is currently shared by the Mariners and Jays. They'll have a chance to climb back to .500 tomorrow evening against the Cubs.

The Orioles aren't going to continue winning indefinitely, of form. Their successive sweeps came against two below-average teams, and the Angels in particular have been in an accented tailspin. Yet their solid play hasn't been confined only to the past week and a half. They're 22-14 since the start of June, outscoring opponents by 29 runs (170-141) over that stretch. That's an arbitrary cutoff, and ane can't dismiss a 7-14 Apr that buried them in the standings right out of the gate. Yet this has at least been the best stretch of play for the franchise since their rebuild began in 2018, and they've gotten themselves into the playoff picture.

Will that be enough to deter the front office from moving some players off the roster for future talent? General manager Mike Elias struck a cautious tone speaking with reporters concluding week (link via Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com). "Everything that I do or that we do has tradeoffs, and all I can say is, we do everything from a very global, a very thoughtful perspective well-nigh what is the right thing to do for the health of the Orioles' franchise," Elias said. "I don't know what's going to happen, but I'thou saying nosotros're taking a look at everything as we make these decisions and we'll see what happens."

The front office certainly doesn't seem ready to declare the rebuild over and role with high-end talent to add together pieces for the 2022 stretch run. Each of FanGraphs and Baseball Reference has the club's odds of reaching the playoffs below x%. Fifty-fifty as they've played their way back into the flick, information technology's fair to wonder whether the roster — the starting rotation especially — tin can concur up for another two and a one-half months. Few would argue the Orioles are a better team than the Blue Jays, Mariners, Rays or Blood-red Sox, yet they'll have to outplay multiple members of that group (and hold off a handful of teams only behind them) to go to the playoffs. Even were they to add some rotation help and/or upgrade on any ofJorge Mateo,Ramón Urías or Rougned Odor around the infield, the O's would remain postseason longshots.

If Elias and his staff aren't likely to pivot and aggressively add before the deadline, there's even so room for them to stay the course without selling. Generally, the O's current core can exist kept effectually beyond this flavour. Baltimore has but 3 impending free agents on the roster. Aroma and backup catcherRobinson Chirinos aren't going to attract trade interest anyway, meaning the only key rental for the O's to decide upon isTrey Mancini. (His deal technically contains a $10MM mutual selection for 2023, merely he's likely to decline that and seek a multi-twelvemonth gratis agent deal).

Mancini is having a good season, carrying a .281/.353/.420 line beyond 331 plate appearances. He'd attract a decent amount of interest as one of the better rental bats bachelor were the Orioles to store him over the next few weeks. Still, as an impending gratuitous agent with defensive limitations, he won't bring back an heart-popping return. Baltimore almost certainly wouldn't compensate a prospect generally regarded as a summit 100 caliber player in a deal. In all likelihood, they'd state a couple of players most evaluators view as middle-tier prospects from another organisation.

A Mancini merchandise would add talent to an already-deep farm organization, but would there be enough appeal to pull the trigger if the Orioles remain inside three or four games of a Wild Card spot by the August 2 deadline? In improver to his on-field value, the 30-twelvemonth-erstwhile first baseman is generally regarded as a strong clubhouse presence. He'due south a fan favorite, and his overcoming a 2020 boxing with colon cancer makes him one of the sport'due south easiest players to support. Dealing Mancini if the Orioles were 10+ games dorsum would've been unpopular with some segment of the fanbase; trading him if the team continues playing well and remains on the fringes of contention would exist even more than so. That'd be equally true in the clubhouse.

Baltimore's highest-value assets are under a longer window of gild control. OutfieldersCedric Mullins andAustin Hays can exist kept around through 2025. They looked unlikely to change hands no matter how this season's first half went, and that'southward all the more true with the gild showing signs of life. CloserJorge López could be more likely to movement given the inherent volatility with relief pitching, but he'south arbitration-eligible through 2024. That's also truthful of corner outfielderAnthony Santander, who'd have more than pocket-size involvement than any of Mullins, Hays or López given his defensive shortcomings and upward-and-downwardly career rails record at the dish.

Things should go harder for the O'south over the side by side few weeks. After a 2-game set with Chicago, they'll split their next ten games between the Rays (7) and Yankees (three). Their concluding series of July volition be in Cincinnati, followed past 1 pre-borderline matchup with Texas. Drop ten or 11 of those contests, and the O'southward probably stop up as sellers, at least parting with Mancini. If they tin can go viii-viii or nine-vii over that stretch, though, Elias and his staff will have to decide on a team hovering around .500 and likely within shouting altitude of a playoff spot for the first time in six years.

The front office is certainly going to remain mindful of the long-term outlook. They're not going to suddenly bound into theLuis Castillo orFrankie Montas behest, although perhaps they could entertain the thought of calculation a lower-impact starter with a lengthier window of remaining control. Yet the team has played well plenty of belatedly to give themselves a shot to avoid subtractions. Much will depend on how they play over the next three weeks, but the Orioles may not be as motivated to deal as they'd seemed simply a few days ago. That'south a credit to their surprisingly strong play over the by month-plus. The team has given themselves a shot to make the front office rethink their deadline outlook, and the side by side fifteen games should be the franchise's nearly of import in a one-half-decade.

Image courtesy of Usa Today Sports.

Source: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/07/should-the-orioles-rethink-their-trade-deadline-approach.html

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